Power, politics and hunger (2)

Nairobi November 10, 2011

Al Shabaab was ousted from Mogadishu in October by the AU force Amisom, consisting of
soldiers from Burundi and Uganda, with the support of forces from the Transitional
Federal Government of Somalia. A fragile peace was established in
the capital, torn from fighting and run down from lack of management of basic
facilities and maintenance of public and private property for decades.

Al Shabaab retreated southwards, threatening to come back or to return with new forms or
methods of retaliation. That is not an empty threat; they have made a lethal
attack in Uganda, as a revenge for Uganda’s involvement. And they have come
back, so far in small attacks, but now in the traditionally peaceful and
resilient Kenya. Abduction of tourists and aid workers had the calculated
negative effects on the Kenyan tourist industry, a large earner of foreign
currency.

Kenya retaliated with unexpected force. They invaded southern Somalia
with 3000 ground troops, (including embedded journalists), support from the air
force and deployment of the navy to protect the coast. Since this is the first time that they are at war, it was a surprise move; the Kenyan public did not expect it, nor did the region and, probably not the al Shabaab.

The Kenyan public though, seems to support the move. It is clear that there is as strong resentment
of having a fragile, or rather failed, state as a neighbor. Everything is now
blamed on the Somalis, as many things in Botswana or South Africa is blamed on
the influx of Zimbabweans.

The parliament is endorsing the war. They were not formally consulted prior to the invasion, but had a meeting in camera where, according to reports, no one spoke against the military intervention.

In Nairobi today, there are few signs of the war effort. Daily life seems to continue
undisturbed. Even Eastleigh in Nairobi, dominated by business and Somalis,
seems tranquil, dirty, busy, commercial, - exactly as before. But security is
heightened at public places and car boot sales have been cancelled, which illustrates
an increased awareness of possible threats. In media there are of course
discussions on the ultimate objectives of this effort, and on the viability of
these objectives.

The UN with support from the US (or vice versa?) tried to install peace in Somalia in 1994.
They failed. The Ethiopians ditto in 2006. Why shall a country with much
smaller armed forces succeed?

It is clear what Kenya wants: A neighbor that is in no way a threat to Kenyan industry; be
it beer, cement, oil or tourism. That is why Kenya has been active in hosting
various peace negotiations, to no avail, leading to increased Kenyan frustration.
The objective with the invasion seems to be to create a peaceful buffer zone on
the Somali side of the border. If clan conflicts in Somalia would lead to three
of four separate Somali states, such as Somaliland today and maybe Puntland tomorrow,
this would not be running against the Kenyan interest, as long as they
function. That could also be in the Ethiopian interest; having small and weak
countries as neighbors, rather than a conflict ridden havoc creating larger
Somalia.

The Kenyan incursion in Somalia has also brought the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea
to the surface. Kenya has formally accused Eritrea for supporting al Shabaab,
which Asmara vehemently denies. From Eritreas point of view, the accusations are bad news: They strengthen the links between Kenya and Ethiopia and the Eritrean isolation increases.

The humanitarian crisis continues, even if there are signs that it is not worsening.
The influx to Dadaab has slowed down. But the situation in the camp is very
serious with fear for increased spreading of diseases. International aid organizations
have left after the abduction of aid workers. The ongoing rains might lead to
increased food production next year, if the political situation allows for it.

There are few short term humanitarian crises; their causes are often structural and their
consequences for shattered societies, capacity for food production and weakened
human bodies last long.