Sweden and Africa, article from Dagens Nyheter

An African miracle is unfolding

- but where is Sweden?

August 19, 2011

Bo Göransson, NAI Associate; formerly Director General of Sida, Swedish ambassador in Kenya, and advisor to the African Development Bank, and Cecilia Bäcklander, former Program Director of Educational Radio UR, presently freelance journalist and TV producer.

The hunger disaster on the Horn of Africa has once again given us pictures and reports of Africa as a starving child that we need to save, obscuring the progress made. An African middle class is emerging. IMF predicts that seven of the ten fastest-growing economies in the world in the next few years will be in Africa.

Will the IMF projections become reality? Probably not completely, but the African Miracle seems likely to continue. As in North Africa, youth unemployment is gigantic in East Africa. This could prove a dangerous brew, which may pave the way for populism and extremism. Two risk factors may upset all ambitions and projections: conflicts and ethnicity. Many leaders gain more from chaos and conflict than from development.

The Nordic countries should have a lot of useful experience for countries with growing gaps between rich and poor. Where is Sweden in this landscape of opportunities and growth, tension and conflict? Disappearing! Decades of development of relations with Africa are being thrown overboard and thus, too, the possibility of good contacts with growing economies. And we are losing influence in conflict areas.

When the African lions start challenging the Asian tigers and the stagnating OECD countries, we retreat. Why is Sweden throwing away its good relations with Africa after thirty years of close cooperation?

Of the ten fastest growing economies in the world over the last ten years, six were African countries. The number of conflicts has decreased, democracy has grown stronger, economic policies have improved in many ways and the prices of African products have increased. Chinese investments have been valuable, but not of decisive economic importance.

The hunger disaster on the Horn of Africa has once again given us pictures and reports of Africa as a starving child that we need to save. These pictures obscure the progress made. We thus lose sight of the causes of starvation. They relate to power, to the fact that some people make money from chaos and conflict. The result is humanitarian crisis, but the causes are political.
Africa was the continent that contributed the least (=nothing) to the global financial crisis, but was hit the hardest through worsened living (survival) conditions for millions of its people. The African societies do not have the buffers that richer countries and people have. They did not receive the support that the most exposed of the rich countries gave each other. The poor countries were once again let down. There was a significant blip in the growth rate.

Nevertheless, the International Monetary Fund predicts that seven of the ten fastest-growing economies 2011-2015 will be in Africa. Which are these African lions? Ethiopia, Mozambique and Nigeria were among the ten fastest growing 2001-2010. On the new list are also DR Congo, Tanzania, Ghana and Zambia.

In some cases, it is obvious that the high growth rates result from the bottomless pit they are coming from. The economy collapses during a conflict, but when the hostilities peter out there is often a rapid recovery. DR Congo is an example. Booming raw material prices may be temporary, but make for rapid economic growth. Will the IMF projections become reality? Probably not completely, but the African Miracle seems likely to continue.

High and sustained growth means improvements – or at least hope of improvements – for millions of people. Ethiopia will have a GDP in 2015 that is four times as high as in the beginning of this century. You can see it in parts. Enormous housing blocks are being erected in a massive construction program of private homes in an effort to stop the slums from spreading.

Development in East Africa has brought about the emergence of a middle class. Economic growth has mostly benefited the urban population. A broad middle class is needed, but at the same time policies are required that prevent the enlargement of an impoverished un(der)employed lower class.

Two risk factors may upset all ambitions and projections: conflicts and ethnicity. The number of conflicts has decreased. But conflicts have a tendency to recur; there may be renewed conflict in DR Congo or between Ethiopia and Eritrea. South Sudan became an independent state on 9 July 2011 – an historic event. Can the fragile peace between the parties in the South be retained now that independence from the government in Khartoum has been achieved?

The various leaders of Somalia continue to torment their populations and their neighbors. Somalia has been privatized beyond all reason. Customs fees are being collected by anyone erecting a road-block or seizing control of the port or the airport. A Kalashnikov serves as a credit card. To the revenues from smuggling and drugs are now being added the spoils from Indian Ocean piracy. The conflict in Somalia is about power and money. It is not ethnical, unlike almost all other hot spots in the region.

The explosive force of ethnicity has increased, contrary to most predictions. The prevailing theory has been that with economic growth and urbanization, ethnicity would gradually give way to more ‘modern’ identification categories such as urban/rural dwellers, academics/students, and blue/white-collar workers.

In the latest census in Kenya, people were asked which group they belonged to. One option was “Kenyan”, chosen by only 1.5%. The majority of 98.5% chose an ethnical group.

Countries are dealing with ethnicity in different ways. Rwanda tries to conceal it, Burundi builds its parties on it, Ethiopia has based its administrative divisions on it, and in Kenya the ethnical power struggle is heating up again. In South Sudan, the two main groups are struggling. Tanzania is an oasis in this tribal mess, except for Zanzibar.

In this situation, a message is coming from North Africa. The events there are not perceived as a struggle between different ideologies, but as issues of Freedom and Frustration. Too little freedom and too much frustration, mainly over unemployment and corruption. In East Africa too, youth unemployment is gigantic. This could prove a dangerous brew, which may pave the way for populism and extremism and thus upset planned and projected progress.

The Nordic countries are well-known for a history of progressive social development and labor market policies and for attempts to enhance equality. We should have a lot of useful experience for countries with growing gaps between rich and poor.

Where is Sweden in this landscape of opportunities and growth, tension and conflict? We have had close relations with several of the countries now forecast to have extremely high growth rates, – first through missionaries and than through aid and development cooperation, trade and tourism. We need to be active, to be seen and heard.
Many times during our recent trip through the region we were asked: “What does Sweden want, where is Sweden?” We were compared to countries that are increasing their presence in Africa.

The answer is that we are hardly there anymore.

Starvation on the Horn of Africa is not primarily the result of drought but of leaders who gain from chaos and conflict. In this situation, our intense work with support to various peace processes is being undone when it should be more urgent than ever to complement the humanitarian support with political pressures.

In Rwanda we still have good – but weakening – contacts. In South Sudan we are invisible. In Tanzania we have old contacts, but they are only getting older. In Kenya and Uganda, as in the other countries, we think we have had good political and commercial entry points, not least through our aid programs. Those days are now gone; we are now just an anonymous EU member, without a voice or opinion of our own.

The most obvious example is Ethiopia. Addis Ababa is the political capital of Africa and Ethiopia has very close historical links with Sweden. Ethiopia is a big power in Africa with 85 million people and an improving economy. Now they are closing their embassy in Stockholm, because they have no special relations with Sweden!

Thirty years’ development of relations with Africa disappears. We are throwing over board the possibility of good contacts with growing economies and we are losing influence in conflict areas.

Charge Somalia´s leaders in court, article published in Nairobi Star and Swedish newspapers

Charge Somalia´s leaders in court

By Bo Göransson, former Director General of Sida, Swedish ambassador in Kenya, and advisor to the African Development Bank, and Cecilia Bäcklander, former Program Director of Educational Broadcasting Company, presently freelance journalist and TV producer.

It is not drought or nature that causes starvation on the Horn of Africa . War, conflict and irresponsible leaders are to blame for the suffering of hundreds of thousands of people forced to migrate and seek refuge for a chance to survive. Many will die.  If these leaders are allowed to continue there will be new famines. The world should make the same demands on the leaders in Somalia as on any other leaders They should be brought to The Hague and charged with crimes against humanity.

The picture is of course complex. In Somalia there are lots of competent and entrepreneurial people who hijack ships, launder money, deal in drugs and weapons – but also people who in a vacuum and without a functioning state create hi-tech communications systems, manage money transfers, and start up radio stations.

Drought and floods come and go in Somalia, they always have. Climate change may have increased volatility, but people have been able to manage the caprices of nature without massive starvation.

The Somali leaders are not the only actors. Ethiopia is neglecting the drought-prone Ogaden region where many Somali live and where there is a Somali liberation movement. Kenya has for years disregarded its North-Eastern province, where the influx of Somalis has been large for a long time. Eritrea is in constant conflict with Ethiopia and hence supports all Ethiopia’s enemies, for instance Al Shabab, on the principle that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

The sad truth is that the only reasonably calm period in Somalia over the last 20 years was the short period when the ‘Islamic courts’ had a big influence around 2006. They kept the war lords at bay and had the support of the population in the capital Mogadishu.

This support was not about religion but about yearning for peace. Many accepted restrictions of liberties in order to avoid the combats. But with the support of the international community, not least the United States, Ethiopia intervened with its troops in the fall of 2006, and chaos once again became the order of the day. And the – at least superficially – moderate Islamic courts were replaced by the fundamentalist Al Shabab.

What can be done to break this vicious circle?

Food deliveries are hopefully solving the most urgent problem. In the longer term, starting now but for many years ahead: investments in roads, tree planting, improved water conservation methods, access to markets, more schools and health centers, new cultivation methods and income opportunities.

But Somalia’s problems run deeper. There has not been any government with a mandate or power to develop the country, not even to end the destruction. There have been neither taxes nor private capital willing and able to supply the necessary development investments. The country has been ruled by clans and war lords.

Those who are now starving are not the strong groups, many of whom are doing well. Therefore, some form of organized government is a pre-condition for preventing drought resulting in starvation again in five or ten years’ time. But then more people need to gain from peace and stability than from chaos and conflict.

That process will not be possible for Somalia to manage unless the international community lines up a united and strong front, exerting common pressure. The summit to be held in Addis Ababa shortly is labeled a pledging conference for the humanitarian work. But the conference needs to address the fundamental issues, and they are political.

In Somalia, the provisional government has made progress lately. Al Shabab has been forced out of Mogadishu and retreated to the South. The possibilities of humanitarian aid to get through has increased. This may be a temporary retreat. It is important to remember that the breeding ground for Al Shabab is not religion, but discontent in the Somali society with the chaos that has prevailed in the country for many years. The challenge is to give some form of democracy the chance to deliver order and development. Democracy never had that opportunity in Somalia.

Beyond the misery endured by the Somali people, lawlessness in their country causes big damage in other parts of the region. It is not only a mass exodus of hungry people. The piracy loot, the weapons, and the drugs spill over to the neighboring countries. Somalia is no isolated island; hence the 400 000 refugees in Dadaab, hence whole new blocks in Nairobi constructed with piracy money, feeding crime and corruption. One can be sure that this is not benefiting poor people.

Dying of starvation is forced suicide, the body consumes itself. To create starvation should be equated with murder. We do not accept that murderers go free, we no longer accept that leaders repress their people. The tyrants in North Africa have been forced to realize this.

The leaders of Somalia should also be brought to accountability. They have through their actions forced millions of people to flee and they are putting the lives of hundreds of thousands at risk.

Why should they not be brought to The Hague?